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Study Offers EHR-Based Approach To Predicting Post-Hospital Opioid Use

Posted on March 27, 2018 I Written By

Sunny is a serial entrepreneur on a mission to improve quality of care through data science. Sunny’s last venture docBeat, a healthcare care coordination platform, was successfully acquired by Vocera communications. Sunny has an impressive track record of Strategy, Business Development, Innovation and Execution in the Healthcare, Casino Entertainment, Retail and Gaming verticals. Sunny is the Co-Chair for the Las Vegas Chapter of Akshaya Patra foundation (www.foodforeducation.org) since 2010.

With opioid abuse a raging epidemic in the United States, hospitals are looking for effective ways to track and manage opioid treatment effectively. In an effort to move in this direction, a group of researchers has developed a model which predicts the likelihood of future chronic opioid use based on hospital EHR data.

The study, which appears in the Journal of General Internal Medicine, notes that while opioids are frequently prescribed in hospitals, there has been little research on predicting which patients will progress to chronic opioid therapy (COT) after they are discharged. (The researchers defined COT as when patients were given a 90-day supply of opioids with less than a 30-day gap in supply over a 180-day period or receipt of greater than 10 opioid prescriptions during the past year.)

To address this problem, researchers set out to create a statistical model which could predict which hospitalized patients would end up on COT who had not been on COT previously. Their approach involved doing a retrospective analysis of EHR data from 2008 to 2014 drawn from records of patients hospitalized in an urban safety-net hospital.

The researchers analyzed a wide array of variables in their analysis, including medical and mental health diagnoses, substance and tobacco use, chronic or acute pain, surgery during hospitalization, having received opioid or non-opioid analgesics or benzodiazepines during the past year, leaving the hospital with opioid prescriptions and milligrams of morphine equivalents prescribed during their hospital stay.

After conducting the analysis, researchers found that they could predict COT in 79% of patients, as well as predicting when patients weren’t on COT 78% of the time.

Being able to predict which patients will end up on COT after discharge could prove to be a very effective tool. As the authors note, using EHR data to create such a predictive model could offer many benefits, particularly the ability to identify patients at high risk for future chronic opioid use.

As the study notes, if clinicians have this information, they can offer early patient education on pain management strategies and where possible, wean them off of opioids before discharging them. They’ll also be more likely to consider incorporating alternative pain therapies into their discharge planning.

While this data is exciting and provides great opportunities, we need to be careful how we use this information. Done incorrectly it could cause the 21% who are misidentified as at risk for COT to end up needing COT. It’s always important to remember that identifying those at risk is only the first challenge. The second challenge is what do you do with that data to help those at risk while not damaging those who are misidentified as at risk.

One issue the study doesn’t address is whether data on social determinants of health could improve their predictions. Incorporating both SDOH and patient-generated data might lend further insight into their post-discharge living conditions and solidify discharge planning. However, it’s evident that this model offers a useful approach on its own.

To Avoid Readmissions, Hospitals Trying Post-Discharge Clinics

Posted on December 12, 2011 I Written By

Anne Zieger is veteran healthcare branding and communications expert with more than 25 years of industry experience. and her commentaries have appeared in dozens of international business publications, including Forbes, Business Week and Information Week. She has also worked extensively healthcare and health IT organizations, including several Fortune 500 companies. She can be reached at @ziegerhealth or www.ziegerhealthcare.com.

In recent years, hospitals have been under increasing pressure to keep their readmission rates low. The next bump in the road comes in October 2012, when Medicare will begin cutting back on reimbursement for facilities whose readmit rates are too high.

Hospitals are already hard at work at preventing readmissions due to preventable medical errors, which may not be reimbursed at all by Medicare at all. But it seems like they’re still far behind in the care coordination department.

In fact, research suggests that they’re facing an uphill battle, in part because patients often don’t get the kind of follow-up care they need.

In theory, fragile patients  should move smoothly from inpatient care to their PCP, ideally a medical home equipped to coordinate whatever follow-up care needs they have. Few primary care practices are up to speed yet, however.  In fact, some aren’t even sure when their patients are discharged.

How bad is the problem? According to one study quoted in The Hospitalist, only 42 percent of hospitalized Medicare patients had any contact with a primary care physician within 14 days of being discharged.

One solution to this problem might be a “post-discharge” or transitional care clinic offering primary care on or near a hospital’s campus, the article notes. This makes sense. After all, it’s more likely a patient will follow through and get follow-up care if it’s convenient to do so.

The idea behind these clinics isn’t to replace the patient’s existing PCP; instead, the clinic’s hospitalists, advance-practice nurses or PCPs are there to make sure patients absorbed their post-discharge instructions and are compliant with the meds prescribed during their stay.

Some hospitals have invested significant resources in building out transitional clinics, including Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Seattle-based Harborview Medical Center and Tallahassee (Fla.) Memorial Hospital, which partnered with a local health plan to kick off the effort.

That being said, the idea is a new one and few other hospitals have taken the plunge as of yet. It will be interesting to see whether this approach actually works, and particularly, whether one model of transitional care stands out.

P.S.  I’d particularly like to know whether hospitals can accomplish some of these objectives by monitoring patients remotely after they’re discharged. After attending last week’s mHealth show, I’m betting remote monitoring would be cheaper than setting up a new clinic. Can’t wait to see whether hospitals try that route!