Paris Hospitals Use Big Data To Predict Admissions

Posted on December 19, 2016 I Written By

Anne Zieger is veteran healthcare editor and analyst with 25 years of industry experience. Zieger formerly served as editor-in-chief of FierceHealthcare.com and her commentaries have appeared in dozens of international business publications, including Forbes, Business Week and Information Week. She has also contributed content to hundreds of healthcare and health IT organizations, including several Fortune 500 companies. She can be reached at @ziegerhealth or www.ziegerhealthcare.com.

Here’s a fascinating story in from Paris (or par-ee, if you’re a Francophile), courtesy of Forbes. The article details how a group of top hospitals there are running a trial of big data and machine learning tech designed to predict admission rates. The hospitals’ predictive model, which is being tested at four of the hospitals which make up the Assistance Publiq-Hopitaux de Paris (AP-HP), is designed to predict admission rates as much as 15 days in advance.

The four hospitals participating in the project have pulled together a massive trove of data from both internal and external sources, including 10 years’ worth of hospital admission records. The goal is to forecast admissions by the day and even by the hour for the four facilities participating in the test.

According to Forbes contributor Bernard Marr, the project involves using time series analysis techniques which can detect patterns in the data useful for predicting admission rates at different times.  The hospitals are also using machine learning to determine which algorithms are likely to make good predictions from old hospital data.

The system the hospitals are using is built on the open source Trusted Analytics Platform. According to Marr, the partners felt that the platform offered a particularly strong capacity for ingesting and crunching large amounts of data. They also built on TAP because it was geared towards open, collaborative development environments.

The pilot system is accessible via a browser-based interface, designed to be simple enough that data science novices like doctors, nurses and hospital administration staff could use the tool to forecast visit and admission rates. Armed with this knowledge, hospital leaders can then pull in extra staffers when increased levels of traffic are expected.

Being able to work in a distributed environment will be key if AP-HP decides to roll the pilot out to all of its 44 hospitals, so developers built with that in mind. To be prepared for the future, which might call for adding a great deal of storage and processing power, they designed distributed, cloud-based system.

“There are many analytical solutions for these type of problems, [but] none of them have been implemented in a distributed fashion,” said Kyle Ambert, an Intel data scientist and TAP contributor who spoke with Marr. “Because we’re interested in scalability, we wanted to make sure we could implement these well-understood algorithms in such a way that they work over distributed systems.”

To make this happen, however, Ambert and the development team have had to build their own tools, an effort which resulted in the first contribution to an open-source framework of code designed to carry out analysis over scalable, distributed framework, one which is already being deployed in other healthcare environments, Marr reports.

My feeling is that there’s no reason American hospitals can’t experiment with this approach. In fact, maybe they already are. Readers, are you aware of any US facilities which are doing something similar? (Or are most still focused on “skinny” data?)